1. 通货膨胀和失业率
考古确定
第一段 一种传统的理论认为失业率像其它商品一样，反映了劳动力市场的供需情况，失业率下降，证明劳动力需求增加，员工工资就会增加，就会引起通货膨胀。经济学家希望通过关系式来找出失业率下降到何种成都不会引起通货膨胀，最后算处是6。但美国九十年代后期失业率下降，通胀也下降。
第二段 传统理论的经济学家给出了一些新的解释，给了四五个，不记得了，有美元货币坚挺的因素，有医疗什么的因素，但这里有考题，问哪些不是，对照找出就可以了。
第三段 传统经济学家的理由只是暂时性的，新经济学家给了两个新的解释：好像一个是科技的发展，提高了效率并根本降低了商品的成本;一个是工人的安全感下降，所以现金形式的收入下降了，在收入上会作出妥协。
问题
1.问哪一个会削弱反驳的观点， 狗主人选的是技术不会永远进步
2.记得有一题的考点定位是transitory这个词。
2.财政赤字和通货膨胀率
Prep 1
Essay #10. 154
Conventional wisdom has it that large deficits赤字 in the United States budget cause interest rates to rise. Two main arguments are given for this claim. According to the first, as the deficit increases, the government will borrow more to make up for the ensuing shortage of funds. Consequently, it is argued, if both the total supply of credit (money available for borrowing) and the amount of credit sought by nongovernment borrowers remain relatively stable, as is often supposed, then the price of credit (the interest rate) will increase. That this is so is suggested by the basic economic principles that if supplies of a commodity (here, credit) remain fixed and demand for that commodity increases, its price will also increase. The second argument supposes that the government will tend to finance its deficits by increasing the money supply with insufficient regard for whether there is enough room for economic growth to enable such an increase to occur without causing inflation. It is then argued that financiers will expect the deficit to cause inflation and will raise interest rates, anticipating that because of inflation the money they lend will be worth less when paid back.
Unfortunately for the first argument, it is unreasonable to assume that nongovernment borrowing and the supply of credit will remain relatively stable. Nongovernment borrowing sometimes decreases. When it does, increased government borrowing will not necessarily push up the total demand for credit. Alternatively, when credit availability increases, for example through 美国GREater foreign lending to the United States, then interest rates need not rise, even if both private and government borrowing increase.
The second argument is also problematic. Financing the deficit by increasing the money supply should cause inflation only when there is not enough room for economic growth. Currently, there is no reason to expect deficits to cause inflation. However, since many financiers believe that deficits ordinarily create inflation, then admittedly they will be inclined使倾向 to raise interest rates to offset mistakenly anticipated inflation. This effect, however, is due to ignorance无知愚昧, not to the deficit itself, and could be lessened by educating financiers on this issue.英语作文
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